No-Deal Brexit, Deutsche Bank hikes the probability.

The German bank Deutsche Bank predicts 20 per cent of the unprofitable Brexit. While at the beginning it was only 10 per cent. After the failure of the Mayor’s proposal, the chances of it succeeding in the third consecutive year are decreasing.

“The dangers of a recent last-minute accident have increased,” said Oliver Harvey, the head of Brexit’s research at the German bank, adding that “government strategy seems to be lifted from the feet.”

This increase in forecasts made by Deutsche Bank comes shortly after JP Morgan raised his chances of an uncompromising exit from 10 to 15 percent the date 29, the other Friday is the deadline for a deal on Brex.

Deutsche Bank also lowered the forecasts for a success of the Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal from 35 to 25 percent.

Harvey wrote: “In a worst case scenario, we anticipate that the government will seek an emergency expansion of Article 50 even at the end of next week if the third attempt to ratify the withdrawal agreement fails.”

He attributed a 55 percent probability to this score.

The bank also closed its “short EUR / GBP” recommendation since ratification of Prime Minister May’s agreement was no longer grounded.

By the end of last month, Deutsche Bank had lowered its forecasts for a Brexit without agreement from 15 to 10 percent./Investing.com

 

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